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Analysis

Why Bitcoin volatility compression usually ends with a bang

An analysis of the last six low-volatility regimes and what followed each of them.

· 6 min read
Price chart on a dark screen
Price chart on a dark screen

Periods of unusually low Bitcoin volatility tend to end abruptly. We looked at the last six such regimes.

The pattern

In five of six cases, the 30-day realised volatility doubled within a month of hitting its low.

The caveat

Direction is not predictable from volatility alone. Treat compression as a warning to size positions carefully, not as a signal.